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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+4.67vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.60+5.08vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.72+3.80vs Predicted
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4Tufts University4.08+1.64vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+1.42vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.47+1.67vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University4.01-1.14vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.51-0.47vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.11-0.12vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.84-0.21vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.89-4.70vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-0.03vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.55+1.30vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-5.82vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.38-7.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.08SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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6.8Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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5.64Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.67Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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5.86Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.53University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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9.79Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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6.3Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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11.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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14.3Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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8.18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| William Haeger | 12.2% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Needham | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Dillon Paiva | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 0.5% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 3.4% |
| Cam Cullman | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Watterson | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 36.3% | 12.9% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 9.0% | 78.8% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 1.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.