Race 5B

lark-invite

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Marina Garrido 10.3% 13.1% 14.3% 13.5% 13.2% 11.1% 9.0% 7.0% 4.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Drew Mastovsky 29.2% 21.5% 18.4% 12.4% 8.8% 5.3% 2.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Meredith Broadus 8.9% 10.1% 10.5% 11.8% 11.2% 12.8% 11.0% 9.7% 7.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Connor Macken 18.5% 17.1% 16.2% 14.6% 12.0% 8.4% 6.6% 3.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Michael Cunniff 2.4% 2.1% 2.9% 3.9% 4.6% 5.3% 6.9% 7.5% 10.7% 12.6% 14.1% 15.4% 11.6%
Sam Ingalls 12.7% 13.9% 14.0% 14.3% 13.2% 10.6% 8.9% 5.9% 3.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Sylvia Burns 3.8% 4.7% 4.5% 5.8% 6.4% 8.8% 11.3% 10.9% 12.2% 11.4% 11.0% 6.7% 2.7%
Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.5% 4.2% 5.4% 6.4% 8.2% 9.7% 11.5% 12.2% 13.0% 11.7% 7.4% 4.4% 2.5%
Caleb Burt 2.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.6% 5.2% 6.3% 6.0% 9.2% 10.8% 12.0% 16.0% 13.4% 8.6%
Olivia Hogan-Lopez 4.5% 4.1% 4.7% 6.5% 7.1% 8.7% 10.1% 11.5% 12.7% 11.4% 9.9% 6.3% 2.5%
Griffin Stolp 1.9% 2.6% 2.9% 3.5% 5.1% 6.7% 8.2% 9.7% 10.0% 12.8% 13.1% 13.8% 9.8%
Rem Johannknecht 1.1% 1.9% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 5.1% 6.7% 7.0% 11.3% 13.9% 21.2% 21.4%
Kathleen Hanson 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.9% 3.4% 3.3% 4.2% 5.5% 7.7% 10.9% 17.3% 40.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.