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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.05+6.89vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+4.97vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+2.46vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.80+1.64vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.23vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.73-0.16vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.34+0.05vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.27-0.69vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.11-1.20vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+2.05vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.57-4.65vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.45-1.83vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.47-2.93vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.22+0.24vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.37-8.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.89SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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6.97St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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5.46Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.64Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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5.84Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.05U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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7.31University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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7.8Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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12.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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6.35Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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10.17Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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10.07Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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14.24Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
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6.94Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Valente | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Esteban Forrer | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Hans Henken | 11.7% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Connor Corgard | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Devin Laviano | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Michael Booker | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 5.7% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 35.2% | 14.6% |
| Max Nickbarg | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 17.0% | 15.5% | 3.0% |
| Adam Keally | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 17.2% | 14.5% | 4.2% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 11.4% | 75.2% |
| William Hutchings | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.