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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.73+4.82vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.05+5.88vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.34+4.00vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.04vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+2.20vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.80-0.42vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.57-0.68vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.11-0.16vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.37-2.06vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.82-4.37vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.27-3.66vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.45-1.81vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.47-2.96vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-1.99vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.22-0.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.82Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.88SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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6.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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5.58Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.32Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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7.84Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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6.94Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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5.63Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.34University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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10.19Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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10.04Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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12.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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14.18Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Corgard | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nick Valente | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Devin Laviano | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Louis Padnos | 11.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Hans Henken | 11.8% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Max Nickbarg | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Bo McClatchy | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| William Hutchings | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.9% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Booker | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 16.7% | 17.1% | 2.6% |
| Adam Keally | 2.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 17.0% | 14.8% | 3.3% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 33.9% | 14.7% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 11.3% | 74.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.