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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.11+6.71vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.34+4.95vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.37+3.90vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.80+1.60vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.05+3.12vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+1.10vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.82-1.47vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.57-1.65vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-2.99vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.27-2.55vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+1.00vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.73-5.94vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.47-2.95vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.22+0.24vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.45-5.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.71Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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6.9Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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5.6Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.12SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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7.1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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5.53Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.35Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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6.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.45University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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12.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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6.06Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.05Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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14.24Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
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9.91Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo McClatchy | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Devin Laviano | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| William Hutchings | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Hans Henken | 11.7% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Esteban Forrer | 12.7% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Max Nickbarg | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.8% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Michael Booker | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 35.8% | 14.4% |
| Connor Corgard | 9.2% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 17.2% | 14.5% | 3.7% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 10.2% | 75.5% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 17.4% | 15.2% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.