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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.34+5.98vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+4.96vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+2.46vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.05+4.02vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.80+0.72vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.37+1.00vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.11+0.81vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.27-0.64vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.73-3.21vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.45+0.03vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-4.84vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.57-5.45vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-0.87vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.47-4.14vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.22-0.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.98U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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6.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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5.46Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.02SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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5.72Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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7.0Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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7.81Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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7.36University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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5.79Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.03Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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6.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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6.55Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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12.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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9.86Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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14.15Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Laviano | 8.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nick Valente | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 1.2% |
| Hans Henken | 12.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| William Hutchings | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| Michael Booker | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Connor Corgard | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 18.1% | 12.5% | 4.6% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.0% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Max Nickbarg | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 35.0% | 16.5% |
| Adam Keally | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 14.4% | 2.6% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 13.8% | 72.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.