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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+4.38vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.54+6.51vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.12+6.09vs Predicted
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4University of Miami1.93+4.16vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13+4.13vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.30+1.23vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.05-1.61vs Predicted
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8George Washington University0.70+2.82vs Predicted
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9Hampton University0.58-0.43vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.85+0.39vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.07-1.40vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.70-4.71vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.22-4.18vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.56-3.13vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.89vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.14-7.01vs Predicted
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17Boston University0.40-5.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38U. S. Naval Academy2.1612.1%1st Place
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8.51Fordham University1.545.7%1st Place
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9.09North Carolina State University1.125.9%1st Place
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8.16University of Miami1.936.0%1st Place
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9.13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.134.4%1st Place
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7.23Webb Institute1.308.3%1st Place
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5.39Tulane University2.0514.1%1st Place
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10.82George Washington University0.703.5%1st Place
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8.57Hampton University0.585.9%1st Place
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10.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.853.6%1st Place
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9.6Northeastern University1.074.1%1st Place
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7.29Jacksonville University1.708.0%1st Place
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8.82Old Dominion University1.225.7%1st Place
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10.87University of Vermont0.563.2%1st Place
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13.11Christopher Newport University-0.841.7%1st Place
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8.99Cornell University1.145.2%1st Place
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11.65Boston University0.402.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 12.1% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Benjamin Usher | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Raam Fox | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| John Wood | 14.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% |
| Tyler Brown | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Jack Guinness | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 7.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% |
| Laura Smith | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 33.4% |
| Ava Gustafson | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 17.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.