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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+4.57vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.37+4.83vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+4.02vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.34+3.10vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.05+3.08vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.57+0.31vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.82-1.48vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.73-2.17vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-3.01vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.45-0.01vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.27-3.64vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+0.25vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.11-4.89vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.47-4.13vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.22-0.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.83Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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7.02St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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7.1U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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8.08SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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6.31Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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5.52Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.83Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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5.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.99Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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7.36University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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12.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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8.11Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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9.87Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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14.18Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| William Hutchings | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Devin Laviano | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Nick Valente | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Max Nickbarg | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 12.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Connor Corgard | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 3.8% |
| Michael Booker | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 14.0% | 37.6% | 14.9% |
| Bo McClatchy | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 0.8% |
| Adam Keally | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 12.3% | 74.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.