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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+4.55vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.57+4.17vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+3.99vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.82+1.52vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.05+3.06vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+6.04vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.37-0.05vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.73-2.14vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-3.00vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.34-2.81vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.27-3.59vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.45-1.83vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.11-4.90vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.47-4.16vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.22-0.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.17Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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6.99St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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5.52Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.06SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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12.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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6.95Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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5.86Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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7.41University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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10.17Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.1Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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9.84Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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14.18Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 12.0% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Max Nickbarg | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nick Valente | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 0.5% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 14.6% | 35.0% | 15.7% |
| William Hutchings | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Connor Corgard | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Devin Laviano | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Michael Booker | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 16.9% | 16.8% | 2.8% |
| Bo McClatchy | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| Adam Keally | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 17.3% | 13.4% | 2.7% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 11.5% | 74.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.