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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+4.53vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.37+4.79vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.57+3.26vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.05+3.99vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+2.15vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+6.05vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-0.98vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.34-0.84vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.73-3.24vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.45+0.03vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.11-3.12vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.27-4.42vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.82-7.19vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.47-4.17vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.22-0.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.53Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.79Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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6.26Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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7.99SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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7.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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12.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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6.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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5.76Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.03Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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7.88Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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7.58University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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5.81Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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9.83Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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14.17Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 12.6% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| William Hutchings | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Max Nickbarg | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 15.1% | 35.0% | 15.5% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Devin Laviano | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Connor Corgard | 10.5% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 3.9% |
| Bo McClatchy | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Michael Booker | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Esteban Forrer | 11.1% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Adam Keally | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 2.9% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 11.5% | 74.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.