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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.05+6.91vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.80+3.51vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.11+4.72vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.34+3.07vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+2.15vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.45+3.96vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.73-1.17vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.88vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.37-2.11vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.57-3.58vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.27-3.63vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.82-6.24vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.47-2.92vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-1.98vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.22-0.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.91SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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5.51Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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7.72Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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7.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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9.96Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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5.83Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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6.89Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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6.42Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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7.37University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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5.76Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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10.08Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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12.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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14.19Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Valente | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| Hans Henken | 11.2% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Bo McClatchy | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Devin Laviano | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 17.0% | 13.7% | 3.0% |
| Connor Corgard | 11.9% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| William Hutchings | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Max Nickbarg | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Michael Booker | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.2% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Adam Keally | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 16.5% | 3.4% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 12.6% | 36.4% | 14.8% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 11.0% | 74.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.