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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.82+4.44vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.57+4.17vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.34+4.02vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.80+1.59vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.37+2.08vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.73-0.22vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+0.04vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.27-0.66vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.45+0.89vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.05-1.89vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.47-1.06vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.11-3.95vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-6.68vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-1.96vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.22-0.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.17Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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7.02U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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5.59Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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7.08Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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5.78Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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7.34University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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9.89Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.11SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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9.94Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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8.05Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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6.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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12.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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14.2Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Forrer | 11.6% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Max Nickbarg | 8.5% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Devin Laviano | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Hans Henken | 12.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| William Hutchings | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Connor Corgard | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Michael Booker | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 15.3% | 12.8% | 3.5% |
| Nick Valente | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 0.6% |
| Adam Keally | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 4.6% |
| Bo McClatchy | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 35.8% | 14.4% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 11.0% | 75.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.