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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.05+4.54vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.93+6.51vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13+6.11vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.16+1.50vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.54+3.53vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.07+3.78vs Predicted
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7North Carolina State University1.12+2.36vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.84+5.46vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.22-0.19vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.85+0.53vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.70-0.08vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.58-3.11vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.14-3.74vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.97-5.00vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.70-7.51vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.56-4.91vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.30-9.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54Tulane University2.0512.0%1st Place
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8.51University of Miami1.935.8%1st Place
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9.11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.135.8%1st Place
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5.5U. S. Naval Academy2.1613.4%1st Place
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8.53Fordham University1.545.5%1st Place
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9.78Northeastern University1.074.2%1st Place
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9.36North Carolina State University1.125.1%1st Place
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13.46Christopher Newport University-0.841.4%1st Place
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8.81Old Dominion University1.225.7%1st Place
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10.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.853.3%1st Place
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10.92George Washington University0.703.2%1st Place
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8.89Hampton University0.585.6%1st Place
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9.26Cornell University1.144.7%1st Place
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9.0Boston University0.975.3%1st Place
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7.49Jacksonville University1.707.0%1st Place
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11.09University of Vermont0.563.6%1st Place
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7.2Webb Institute1.308.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wood | 12.0% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Raam Fox | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 13.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% |
| Benjamin Usher | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% |
| Laura Smith | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 38.0% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Jack Guinness | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% |
| Tyler Brown | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 3.7% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% |
| Patrick Igoe | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 10.9% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.