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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+4.71vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+3.28vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.94+4.89vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.40+2.18vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+4.55vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.54+4.08vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.45+2.70vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.18-4.16vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.03-1.48vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.82-1.64vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.78-2.29vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.71-3.30vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.89-3.69vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.97-2.95vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.66-4.94vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.32-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.71University of Rhode Island2.7811.3%1st Place
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5.28Yale University2.9211.7%1st Place
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7.89Roger Williams University1.945.8%1st Place
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6.18Roger Williams University2.408.4%1st Place
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9.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.414.3%1st Place
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10.08Tufts University1.543.0%1st Place
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9.7Connecticut College1.453.2%1st Place
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3.84Harvard University3.1821.1%1st Place
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7.52Bowdoin College2.035.8%1st Place
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8.36George Washington University1.825.1%1st Place
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8.71Brown University1.785.0%1st Place
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8.7Northeastern University1.715.5%1st Place
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9.31Fordham University1.893.8%1st Place
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11.05Boston University0.972.1%1st Place
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10.06Washington College1.663.1%1st Place
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14.06Princeton University-0.320.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 11.7% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 4.2% |
| Bryan Trammell | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 5.7% |
| Harris Padegs | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
| Justin Callahan | 21.1% | 17.9% | 16.2% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Will Priebe | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 11.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 5.8% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 56.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.