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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+4.12vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.18+1.82vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.71+5.84vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.78+1.60vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.40+1.13vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.66+3.92vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.94+0.84vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.45+1.94vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.03-1.39vs Predicted
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10Boston University0.97+1.15vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-1.56vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.54-1.94vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.89-3.71vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.78-5.06vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.82-6.82vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.32-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.12Yale University2.9212.0%1st Place
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3.82Harvard University3.1822.1%1st Place
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8.84Northeastern University1.714.8%1st Place
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5.6University of Rhode Island2.7811.1%1st Place
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6.13Roger Williams University2.409.7%1st Place
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9.92Washington College1.663.0%1st Place
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7.84Roger Williams University1.945.8%1st Place
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9.94Connecticut College1.453.1%1st Place
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7.61Bowdoin College2.036.5%1st Place
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11.15Boston University0.973.0%1st Place
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9.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.413.9%1st Place
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10.06Tufts University1.542.6%1st Place
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9.29Fordham University1.893.5%1st Place
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8.94Brown University1.784.2%1st Place
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8.18George Washington University1.824.3%1st Place
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14.13Princeton University-0.320.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Nicolosi | 12.0% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 22.1% | 17.7% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 9.7% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 4.8% |
| Mathieu Dale | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Harris Padegs | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 16.8% | 11.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 3.9% |
| Bryan Trammell | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 5.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 3.9% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 13.4% | 57.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.