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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.86+6.57vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.68+2.55vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+3.44vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.38+1.80vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.73-0.30vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.58+3.48vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.42+1.69vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.48-2.63vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.07+1.16vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49-1.10vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.38-1.93vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.90-4.77vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.07-3.13vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.60-2.21vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.19-2.34vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.28-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.57George Washington University1.865.8%1st Place
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4.55Roger Williams University2.6816.1%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.557.8%1st Place
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5.8Bowdoin College2.3810.6%1st Place
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4.7Brown University2.7314.9%1st Place
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9.48Roger Williams University1.582.6%1st Place
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8.69Fordham University1.424.4%1st Place
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5.37Harvard University2.4813.2%1st Place
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10.16Boston University1.072.9%1st Place
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8.9Northwestern University1.494.5%1st Place
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9.07University of Rhode Island1.384.2%1st Place
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7.23Yale University1.905.9%1st Place
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9.87Northeastern University1.073.5%1st Place
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11.79Connecticut College0.601.5%1st Place
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12.66Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
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13.73Princeton University-0.281.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Timms | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 16.1% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 14.9% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Higham | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 2.6% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 13.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 4.9% |
| Shea Smith | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Jonathan Riley | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 17.9% | 13.4% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 21.1% | 23.6% |
| Richard Kertatos | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 45.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.