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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+4.75vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.68+2.80vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.48+2.30vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.73+0.63vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.38+3.96vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+0.31vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.07+2.82vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.49+0.73vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.90-1.53vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.58-0.46vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.60+0.66vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.19+0.68vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.86-5.56vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.42-5.12vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.07-4.90vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.28-2.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75Bowdoin College2.389.8%1st Place
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4.8Roger Williams University2.6814.4%1st Place
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5.3Harvard University2.4812.7%1st Place
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4.63Brown University2.7316.1%1st Place
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8.96University of Rhode Island1.384.0%1st Place
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6.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.558.6%1st Place
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9.82Northeastern University1.073.2%1st Place
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8.73Northwestern University1.493.7%1st Place
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7.47Yale University1.905.9%1st Place
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9.54Roger Williams University1.583.4%1st Place
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11.66Connecticut College0.601.8%1st Place
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12.68Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
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7.44George Washington University1.866.5%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University1.424.9%1st Place
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10.1Boston University1.073.4%1st Place
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13.92Princeton University-0.280.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 14.4% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 12.7% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 16.1% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Riley | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 3.6% |
| Shea Smith | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| George Higham | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 2.4% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 14.9% | 17.9% | 11.3% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 22.3% | 23.0% |
| Owen Timms | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 1.9% |
| Porter Bell | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| Richard Kertatos | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 47.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.