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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.73+3.69vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+4.50vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.68+1.72vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.60+7.56vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.90+2.37vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.58+3.45vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.38+1.87vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.07+1.69vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.42-0.21vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.38-4.33vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.19+1.77vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.86-4.33vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.48-7.56vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University1.49-5.10vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.07-4.94vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.28-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.69Brown University2.7315.8%1st Place
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6.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.558.3%1st Place
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4.72Roger Williams University2.6814.3%1st Place
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11.56Connecticut College0.602.5%1st Place
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7.37Yale University1.906.5%1st Place
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9.45Roger Williams University1.583.5%1st Place
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8.87University of Rhode Island1.384.3%1st Place
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9.69Northeastern University1.073.2%1st Place
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8.79Fordham University1.424.5%1st Place
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5.67Bowdoin College2.3810.0%1st Place
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12.77Washington College0.191.3%1st Place
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7.67George Washington University1.866.1%1st Place
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5.44Harvard University2.4811.7%1st Place
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8.9Northwestern University1.494.0%1st Place
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10.06Boston University1.073.1%1st Place
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13.87Princeton University-0.280.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 15.8% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 14.3% | 14.6% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 17.0% | 12.7% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| George Higham | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 3.4% |
| Jonathan Riley | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 3.3% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 21.6% | 25.2% |
| Owen Timms | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Porter Bell | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 5.0% |
| Richard Kertatos | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 9.7% | 19.6% | 44.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.