← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Rhode Island1.38+7.94vs Predicted
-
2Brown University2.73+2.69vs Predicted
-
3Northwestern University1.49+5.91vs Predicted
-
4Yale University1.90+3.29vs Predicted
-
5Bowdoin College2.38+0.74vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+0.48vs Predicted
-
7Roger Williams University2.68-2.34vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University1.42+0.68vs Predicted
-
9Harvard University2.48-3.64vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University1.58-0.53vs Predicted
-
11Northeastern University1.07-1.02vs Predicted
-
12Connecticut College0.60-0.40vs Predicted
-
13Washington College0.19-0.26vs Predicted
-
14George Washington University1.86-6.43vs Predicted
-
15Boston University1.07-4.92vs Predicted
-
16Princeton University-0.28-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.94University of Rhode Island1.384.1%1st Place
-
4.69Brown University2.7315.7%1st Place
-
8.91Northwestern University1.494.2%1st Place
-
7.29Yale University1.907.1%1st Place
-
5.74Bowdoin College2.3810.3%1st Place
-
6.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.558.8%1st Place
-
4.66Roger Williams University2.6813.4%1st Place
-
8.68Fordham University1.425.1%1st Place
-
5.36Harvard University2.4812.1%1st Place
-
9.47Roger Williams University1.583.3%1st Place
-
9.98Northeastern University1.072.9%1st Place
-
11.6Connecticut College0.601.2%1st Place
-
12.74Washington College0.191.4%1st Place
-
7.57George Washington University1.866.8%1st Place
-
10.08Boston University1.072.9%1st Place
-
13.81Princeton University-0.280.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Riley | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Guthrie Braun | 15.7% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 13.4% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 12.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Higham | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 2.7% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 4.2% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 11.7% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 19.8% | 26.1% |
| Owen Timms | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Porter Bell | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| Richard Kertatos | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 18.6% | 44.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.