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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+4.54vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.58+7.51vs Predicted
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3Yale University1.90+4.10vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.73+0.71vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.38+3.80vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.68-1.34vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-0.82vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.48-2.66vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.07+0.81vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.07+0.10vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University1.49-2.43vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.19+0.45vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.27-3.71vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.42-5.40vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.60-3.35vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.28-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54Bowdoin College2.3811.1%1st Place
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9.51Roger Williams University1.583.3%1st Place
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7.1Yale University1.907.1%1st Place
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4.71Brown University2.7315.0%1st Place
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8.8University of Rhode Island1.384.5%1st Place
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4.66Roger Williams University2.6815.7%1st Place
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6.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.559.6%1st Place
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5.34Harvard University2.4811.3%1st Place
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9.81Northeastern University1.072.8%1st Place
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10.1Boston University1.073.1%1st Place
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8.57Northwestern University1.494.6%1st Place
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12.45Washington College0.191.2%1st Place
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9.29George Washington University1.273.5%1st Place
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8.6Fordham University1.424.5%1st Place
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11.65Connecticut College0.602.0%1st Place
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13.7Princeton University-0.280.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| George Higham | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 15.0% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Riley | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 15.7% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.3% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 3.7% |
| Porter Bell | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 5.1% |
| Shea Smith | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 17.8% | 24.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 17.7% | 12.3% |
| Richard Kertatos | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 17.3% | 44.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.