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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University1.70+6.48vs Predicted
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2Hampton University0.58+6.89vs Predicted
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3University of Miami1.93+5.30vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.85+6.53vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.54+3.67vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.05-0.58vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.16-1.50vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.22+0.98vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.07+0.73vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.30-2.62vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13-1.58vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.70-1.11vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.56-1.93vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.65vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.14-5.89vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.12-6.51vs Predicted
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17Boston University0.97-8.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.48Jacksonville University1.707.9%1st Place
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8.89Hampton University0.585.9%1st Place
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8.3University of Miami1.936.2%1st Place
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10.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.853.5%1st Place
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8.67Fordham University1.545.9%1st Place
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5.42Tulane University2.0514.0%1st Place
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5.5U. S. Naval Academy2.1611.7%1st Place
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8.98Old Dominion University1.225.4%1st Place
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9.73Northeastern University1.074.8%1st Place
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7.38Webb Institute1.307.8%1st Place
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9.42St. Mary's College of Maryland1.135.2%1st Place
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10.89George Washington University0.703.3%1st Place
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11.07University of Vermont0.562.6%1st Place
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13.35Christopher Newport University-0.841.3%1st Place
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9.11Cornell University1.144.9%1st Place
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9.49North Carolina State University1.124.2%1st Place
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8.79Boston University0.975.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Igoe | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Tyler Brown | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Jack Guinness | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| John Wood | 14.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 11.7% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% |
| Everett Botwinick | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Raam Fox | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 11.5% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 10.2% |
| Laura Smith | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 13.3% | 36.4% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| Benjamin Usher | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.