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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Miami2.32+3.76vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.71+4.42vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.51+5.06vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.94+2.00vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38-0.64vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.58+0.97vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+1.09vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.72+2.06vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.20-0.79vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook0.88-0.53vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.72-0.90vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.57-4.53vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.72-3.21vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.84-4.43vs Predicted
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15Washington College-1.01-2.12vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.69-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.76University of Miami2.3215.3%1st Place
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6.42Webb Institute1.7110.0%1st Place
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8.06Tufts University1.515.1%1st Place
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6.0Fordham University1.9410.1%1st Place
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4.36Cornell University2.3817.4%1st Place
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6.97University of Pennsylvania1.587.9%1st Place
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8.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.095.2%1st Place
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10.06SUNY Maritime College0.723.8%1st Place
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8.21California Poly Maritime Academy1.205.5%1st Place
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9.47SUNY Stony Brook0.883.0%1st Place
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10.1University of Vermont0.722.6%1st Place
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7.47Old Dominion University1.576.4%1st Place
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9.79Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.722.6%1st Place
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9.57Princeton University0.843.1%1st Place
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12.88Washington College-1.010.9%1st Place
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13.77University of Virginia-0.690.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlee Kohl | 15.3% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Connor Rosow | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 17.4% | 16.0% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Jack Derry | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 5.2% |
| Ryan Downey | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| kai rauch | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 5.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Egeli | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 4.3% |
| Asher Green | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 22.0% | 27.5% |
| Patrick McBride | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 18.2% | 45.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.