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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.68+4.65vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.51+4.55vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.73+2.00vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73+3.07vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.87+2.77vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.60+0.75vs Predicted
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7University of Miami1.64-0.61vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.50-1.23vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.58+4.44vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.59-3.36vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.71-1.54vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-5.29vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.68+0.20vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03-2.73vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.58-1.75vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.54-5.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65Cornell University1.6811.5%1st Place
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6.55Tufts University1.518.2%1st Place
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5.0Webb Institute1.7314.6%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.736.8%1st Place
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7.77Princeton University1.876.0%1st Place
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6.75University of Pennsylvania1.608.5%1st Place
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6.39University of Miami1.649.6%1st Place
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6.77Fordham University1.507.3%1st Place
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13.44SUNY Stony Brook-0.580.8%1st Place
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6.64Old Dominion University1.598.1%1st Place
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9.46SUNY Maritime College0.713.5%1st Place
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6.71California Poly Maritime Academy1.628.8%1st Place
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13.2Washington College-0.681.1%1st Place
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11.27Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.032.0%1st Place
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13.25University of Virginia-0.580.8%1st Place
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10.08University of Vermont0.542.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Smith | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 14.6% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Steven Hardee | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Connor Bennett | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 23.2% | 30.6% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Finn Mahan | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Clay Myers | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 21.2% | 28.2% |
| Andy Leshaw | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 7.2% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 22.1% | 28.1% |
| Luke Quine | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.