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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+3.97vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.51+4.58vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73+4.06vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.87+3.94vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.60+1.77vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.68-0.39vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.59-0.33vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03+3.37vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.50-2.14vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.71-0.59vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-4.13vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.54-2.10vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.68+0.21vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-0.68vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.58-1.79vs Predicted
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16University of Miami1.64-9.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97Webb Institute1.7314.3%1st Place
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6.58Tufts University1.517.5%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.736.8%1st Place
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7.94Princeton University1.875.7%1st Place
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6.77University of Pennsylvania1.607.5%1st Place
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5.61Cornell University1.6812.5%1st Place
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6.67Old Dominion University1.598.9%1st Place
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11.37Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.031.6%1st Place
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6.86Fordham University1.507.3%1st Place
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9.41SUNY Maritime College0.713.5%1st Place
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6.87California Poly Maritime Academy1.627.9%1st Place
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9.9University of Vermont0.543.5%1st Place
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13.21Washington College-0.680.9%1st Place
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13.32SUNY Stony Brook-0.581.3%1st Place
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13.21University of Virginia-0.581.2%1st Place
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6.25University of Miami1.649.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 14.3% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Luke Zylinski | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Andy Leshaw | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 17.0% | 14.0% | 6.5% |
| Connor Bennett | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Finn Mahan | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| Clay Myers | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Luke Quine | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 2.4% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 22.3% | 27.3% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 14.3% | 20.9% | 31.4% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 21.6% | 29.6% |
| Steven Hardee | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.