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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+3.97vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+3.75vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73+4.16vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.51+2.78vs Predicted
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5University of Miami1.64+1.51vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.87+1.82vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.59-0.42vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.80+1.03vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.60-2.16vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.50-3.13vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.68+2.18vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.71-2.25vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-6.14vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.58-0.78vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03-3.67vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97Webb Institute1.7314.9%1st Place
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5.75Cornell University1.6812.2%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.736.4%1st Place
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6.78Tufts University1.518.0%1st Place
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6.51University of Miami1.648.6%1st Place
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7.82Princeton University1.875.4%1st Place
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6.58Old Dominion University1.598.9%1st Place
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9.03University of Vermont0.804.0%1st Place
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6.84University of Pennsylvania1.607.8%1st Place
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6.87Fordham University1.507.8%1st Place
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13.18Washington College-0.680.9%1st Place
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9.75SUNY Maritime College0.713.5%1st Place
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6.86California Poly Maritime Academy1.627.6%1st Place
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13.22University of Virginia-0.581.0%1st Place
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11.33Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.032.0%1st Place
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13.35SUNY Stony Brook-0.580.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 14.9% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Clark Morris | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Steven Hardee | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Bennett | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 20.8% | 29.1% |
| Finn Mahan | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 2.2% |
| Clay Myers | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 28.9% |
| Andy Leshaw | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 7.6% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 22.1% | 29.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.