← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania1.60+5.73vs Predicted
-
2Princeton University1.87+5.86vs Predicted
-
3Webb Institute1.73+1.86vs Predicted
-
4Old Dominion University1.59+2.73vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73+2.04vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.68-0.27vs Predicted
-
7Tufts University1.51-0.19vs Predicted
-
8University of Miami1.64-1.61vs Predicted
-
9Fordham University1.50-2.10vs Predicted
-
10University of Virginia-0.58+3.39vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Stony Brook-0.58+2.34vs Predicted
-
12Washington College-0.68+1.28vs Predicted
-
13University of Vermont0.80-3.82vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College0.71-4.46vs Predicted
-
15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03-3.82vs Predicted
-
16California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-8.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.73University of Pennsylvania1.608.1%1st Place
-
7.86Princeton University1.876.0%1st Place
-
4.86Webb Institute1.7314.9%1st Place
-
6.73Old Dominion University1.599.0%1st Place
-
7.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.736.7%1st Place
-
5.73Cornell University1.6810.3%1st Place
-
6.81Tufts University1.517.9%1st Place
-
6.39University of Miami1.649.2%1st Place
-
6.9Fordham University1.508.6%1st Place
-
13.39University of Virginia-0.581.1%1st Place
-
13.34SUNY Stony Brook-0.580.9%1st Place
-
13.28Washington College-0.681.0%1st Place
-
9.18University of Vermont0.803.1%1st Place
-
9.54SUNY Maritime College0.713.4%1st Place
-
11.18Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.032.5%1st Place
-
7.04California Poly Maritime Academy1.627.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Gavula | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 14.9% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Luke Zylinski | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Steven Hardee | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Connor Bennett | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 23.4% | 28.3% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 14.2% | 22.8% | 30.4% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 21.1% | 29.1% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Finn Mahan | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| Andy Leshaw | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 16.2% | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Clay Myers | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.