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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+4.40vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.07+7.41vs Predicted
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3Hampton University0.58+5.84vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.22+4.60vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.54+3.35vs Predicted
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6University of Miami1.93+1.99vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.40+4.72vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.85+2.04vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.05-3.75vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13-0.99vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.70-3.82vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.30-5.00vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.70-2.47vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.65vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.94-5.44vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.36-4.15vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.12-8.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4U. S. Naval Academy2.1613.5%1st Place
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9.41Northeastern University1.074.2%1st Place
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8.84Hampton University0.585.7%1st Place
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8.6Old Dominion University1.225.8%1st Place
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8.35Fordham University1.545.9%1st Place
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7.99University of Miami1.936.6%1st Place
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11.72Boston University0.402.8%1st Place
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10.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.854.2%1st Place
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5.25Tulane University2.0514.4%1st Place
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9.01St. Mary's College of Maryland1.135.1%1st Place
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7.18Jacksonville University1.707.8%1st Place
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7.0Webb Institute1.308.0%1st Place
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10.53George Washington University0.702.9%1st Place
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13.35Christopher Newport University-0.841.5%1st Place
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9.56Cornell University0.944.0%1st Place
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11.85University of Vermont0.362.1%1st Place
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8.93North Carolina State University1.125.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% |
| Tyler Brown | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 17.0% |
| Jack Guinness | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% |
| John Wood | 14.4% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Raam Fox | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Patrick Igoe | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 31.8% |
| Marcus Greco | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% |
| Marco Welch | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 15.3% |
| Benjamin Usher | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.