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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.67+1.50vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.18+1.16vs Predicted
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3Salve Regina University0.72+5.88vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58+2.78vs Predicted
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5University of Connecticut1.72+1.47vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.59-1.49vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.47-2.47vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University0.55+1.23vs Predicted
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9Brandeis University-0.15+1.99vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy0.29-0.96vs Predicted
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12Williams College-0.03-1.27vs Predicted
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13Wesleyan University-1.49+0.07vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire1.35-6.71vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.51-8.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.5Tufts University3.670.3%1st Place
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3.16Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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8.88Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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6.78Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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6.47University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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4.51University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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4.53Roger Williams University2.470.1%1st Place
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9.23Northeastern University0.550.0%1st Place
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10.99Brandeis University-0.150.0%1st Place
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10.04Maine Maritime Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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10.73Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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13.07Wesleyan University-1.490.0%1st Place
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7.29University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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6.81Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Weigel | 34.4% | 25.9% | 17.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Storck | 22.1% | 22.6% | 17.2% | 15.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Conlin | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 16.0% | 12.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% |
| Andrew Morgan | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Presti | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Moakes | 10.7% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Swanson | 10.6% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olin Nelson | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% |
| Sarah Hyman | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 19.1% | 25.5% | 11.7% |
| Steven Bell | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 14.7% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 6.4% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 19.5% | 21.1% | 10.3% |
| Katherine Walker | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 15.5% | 66.0% |
| William Dykes | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.