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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.67+1.47vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University1.51+4.78vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.47+1.60vs Predicted
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4University of Connecticut1.72+2.44vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.59-0.56vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University0.72+3.04vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58-0.49vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.55+0.29vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire1.35-2.60vs Predicted
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11Williams College-0.03-0.20vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.18-8.71vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.29-2.96vs Predicted
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14Brandeis University-0.15-3.11vs Predicted
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15Wesleyan University-1.49-1.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.47Tufts University3.670.4%1st Place
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6.78Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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4.6Roger Williams University2.470.1%1st Place
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6.44University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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4.44University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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9.04Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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6.51Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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9.29Northeastern University0.550.0%1st Place
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7.4University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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10.8Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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3.29Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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10.04Maine Maritime Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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10.89Brandeis University-0.150.0%1st Place
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13.02Wesleyan University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Weigel | 35.9% | 26.4% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Sara Swanson | 9.9% | 12.2% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Moakes | 10.3% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Conlin | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 8.4% | 2.4% |
| Andrew Morgan | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Olin Nelson | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 3.0% |
| William Dykes | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Jorge Castro | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 17.1% | 23.2% | 10.8% |
| Ian Storck | 21.1% | 19.7% | 18.8% | 15.2% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Steven Bell | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 17.9% | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Sarah Hyman | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 14.9% | 18.0% | 23.7% | 11.7% |
| Katherine Walker | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 7.8% | 13.9% | 65.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.