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📊 Prediction Accuracy
78.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.67+1.49vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.18+1.14vs Predicted
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3Salve Regina University0.72+5.86vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.59+0.41vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58+1.85vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.47-1.27vs Predicted
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7University of Connecticut1.72-0.81vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University1.51-1.08vs Predicted
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9Maine Maritime Academy0.29+1.03vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire1.35-2.60vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University0.55-1.59vs Predicted
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12Brandeis University-0.15-1.05vs Predicted
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13Williams College-0.03-2.41vs Predicted
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14Wesleyan University-1.49-0.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.49Tufts University3.670.4%1st Place
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3.14Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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8.86Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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4.41University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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6.85Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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4.73Roger Williams University2.470.1%1st Place
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6.19University of Connecticut1.720.1%1st Place
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6.92Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.03Maine Maritime Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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7.4University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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9.41Northeastern University0.550.0%1st Place
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10.95Brandeis University-0.150.0%1st Place
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10.59Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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13.02Wesleyan University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Weigel | 35.5% | 24.1% | 16.5% | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Storck | 23.1% | 22.0% | 16.9% | 16.0% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Conlin | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.0% |
| Andrew Moakes | 9.4% | 14.8% | 15.9% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Morgan | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Sara Swanson | 9.6% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 15.8% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Steven Bell | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 15.6% | 5.5% |
| William Dykes | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Olin Nelson | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 3.6% |
| Sarah Hyman | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 24.1% | 12.6% |
| Jorge Castro | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 18.0% | 21.4% | 9.9% |
| Katherine Walker | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 15.3% | 64.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.