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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+2.23vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.67+0.42vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.47+1.57vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.59+0.37vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58+1.86vs Predicted
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6University of Connecticut1.72+0.50vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University0.72+1.71vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University1.51-1.11vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire1.35-2.65vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy0.29-0.95vs Predicted
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12Williams College-0.03-1.25vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.55-3.61vs Predicted
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14Brandeis University-0.15-3.10vs Predicted
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15Wesleyan University-1.49-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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2.42Tufts University3.670.4%1st Place
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4.57Roger Williams University2.470.1%1st Place
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4.37University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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6.86Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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6.5University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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8.71Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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6.89Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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7.35University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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10.05Maine Maritime Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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10.75Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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9.39Northeastern University0.550.0%1st Place
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10.9Brandeis University-0.150.0%1st Place
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13.01Wesleyan University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Storck | 21.4% | 22.8% | 18.0% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Weigel | 35.4% | 25.8% | 18.6% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Swanson | 10.5% | 11.0% | 16.3% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Moakes | 10.2% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 17.2% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Morgan | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Presti | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Pierce Conlin | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 1.6% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| William Dykes | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Steven Bell | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 15.6% | 6.6% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 18.6% | 22.3% | 10.3% |
| Olin Nelson | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 3.6% |
| Sarah Hyman | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 18.5% | 25.3% | 11.1% |
| Katherine Walker | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 65.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.