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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+4.20vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.93+5.97vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13+5.89vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.70+6.48vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.70+1.99vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.05-0.76vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.85+3.22vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.54+0.42vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.40+2.68vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.58-1.52vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.24vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University0.87-2.30vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.14-4.04vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.22-5.62vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University0.69-4.64vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.30-8.99vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.36-5.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2U. S. Naval Academy2.1613.9%1st Place
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7.97University of Miami1.936.7%1st Place
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8.89St. Mary's College of Maryland1.134.3%1st Place
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10.48George Washington University0.703.8%1st Place
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6.99Jacksonville University1.709.4%1st Place
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5.24Tulane University2.0513.6%1st Place
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10.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.854.0%1st Place
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8.42Fordham University1.545.2%1st Place
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11.68Boston University0.403.0%1st Place
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8.48Hampton University0.586.1%1st Place
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13.24Christopher Newport University-0.841.6%1st Place
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9.7North Carolina State University0.873.5%1st Place
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8.96Cornell University1.144.7%1st Place
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8.38Old Dominion University1.225.2%1st Place
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10.36Northeastern University0.693.4%1st Place
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7.01Webb Institute1.308.9%1st Place
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11.79University of Vermont0.362.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 13.9% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Raam Fox | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% |
| Patrick Igoe | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| John Wood | 13.6% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Guinness | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Peter Stewart | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 14.7% |
| Tyler Brown | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Laura Smith | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 31.2% |
| Ryan Brelage | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Gavin Hudson | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Marco Welch | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 14.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.