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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+2.43vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.67+0.58vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58+4.48vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.47+1.10vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.59-0.16vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University1.51+1.79vs Predicted
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7University of Connecticut1.72+0.05vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire1.35+0.23vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University0.72+0.98vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University0.55+0.54vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy0.29+0.14vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.76-4.82vs Predicted
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13Brandeis University1.25-4.27vs Predicted
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15Williams College-0.03-3.17vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University-1.49-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.43Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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2.58Tufts University3.670.3%1st Place
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7.48Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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5.1Roger Williams University2.470.1%1st Place
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4.84University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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7.79Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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7.05University of Connecticut1.720.1%1st Place
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8.23University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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9.98Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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10.54Northeastern University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.14Maine Maritime Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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7.18Brown University1.760.0%1st Place
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8.73Brandeis University1.250.0%1st Place
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11.83Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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14.09Wesleyan University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Storck | 21.1% | 21.0% | 16.8% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Weigel | 32.9% | 24.5% | 18.7% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Morgan | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Sara Swanson | 8.0% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Moakes | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Presti | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| William Dykes | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Pierce Conlin | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% |
| Olin Nelson | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 15.6% | 15.9% | 4.0% |
| Steven Bell | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 17.6% | 19.9% | 9.2% |
| Alexandra Swanson | 4.0% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Jared Dunn | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 0.4% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 16.5% | 28.6% | 11.3% |
| Katherine Walker | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 71.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.