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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.47+3.99vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.18+1.39vs Predicted
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3Salve Regina University0.72+6.92vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.76+3.03vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.67-2.32vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58+1.58vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.51+0.73vs Predicted
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8University of Connecticut1.72-0.84vs Predicted
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9Brandeis University1.25-0.51vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire1.35-1.69vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University0.55-0.47vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.59-6.99vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.29-1.74vs Predicted
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14Williams College-0.03-2.16vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University-1.49-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.99Roger Williams University2.470.1%1st Place
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3.39Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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9.92Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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7.03Brown University1.760.0%1st Place
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2.68Tufts University3.670.3%1st Place
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7.58Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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7.73Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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7.16University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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8.49Brandeis University1.250.0%1st Place
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8.31University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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10.53Northeastern University0.550.0%1st Place
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5.01University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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11.26Maine Maritime Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.84Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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14.09Wesleyan University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Swanson | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Storck | 21.3% | 20.5% | 17.4% | 14.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Conlin | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.3% |
| Alexandra Swanson | 3.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ben Weigel | 33.3% | 22.2% | 17.0% | 12.8% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Morgan | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Presti | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Jared Dunn | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| William Dykes | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Olin Nelson | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 6.1% |
| Andrew Moakes | 9.0% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Steven Bell | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 18.6% | 21.4% | 7.6% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 30.3% | 11.5% |
| Katherine Walker | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 11.3% | 70.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.