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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.47+4.06vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.67+0.56vs Predicted
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3Brandeis University1.25+5.41vs Predicted
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4University of Connecticut1.72+3.11vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.18-1.42vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.59-1.18vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire1.35+1.18vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.76-0.97vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University0.72+1.00vs Predicted
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10Maine Maritime Academy0.29+1.18vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.51-3.24vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.55-1.35vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58-5.32vs Predicted
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14Williams College-0.03-2.16vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University-1.49-1.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.06Roger Williams University2.470.1%1st Place
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2.56Tufts University3.670.3%1st Place
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8.41Brandeis University1.250.0%1st Place
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7.11University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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3.58Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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4.82University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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8.18University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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7.03Brown University1.760.0%1st Place
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10.0Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.18Maine Maritime Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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7.76Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.65Northeastern University0.550.0%1st Place
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7.68Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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11.84Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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14.14Wesleyan University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Swanson | 10.0% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Weigel | 34.6% | 23.2% | 18.4% | 11.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jared Dunn | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Presti | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ian Storck | 19.4% | 18.8% | 17.8% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Moakes | 8.6% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Dykes | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Alexandra Swanson | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Conlin | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 3.0% |
| Steven Bell | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 19.0% | 20.4% | 7.1% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Olin Nelson | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 17.3% | 16.1% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Morgan | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 27.1% | 12.6% |
| Katherine Walker | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 11.7% | 72.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.