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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+2.45vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.67+0.57vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.59+1.72vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.47+1.17vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.51+2.78vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.76+1.04vs Predicted
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7Brandeis University1.25+1.44vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University0.72+1.98vs Predicted
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9University of Connecticut1.72-1.90vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University0.55+0.44vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58-3.38vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy0.29-0.67vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire1.35-4.57vs Predicted
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15Wesleyan University-1.49-0.83vs Predicted
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16Williams College-0.03-4.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.45Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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2.57Tufts University3.670.3%1st Place
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4.72University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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5.17Roger Williams University2.470.1%1st Place
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7.78Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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7.04Brown University1.760.0%1st Place
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8.44Brandeis University1.250.0%1st Place
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9.98Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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7.1University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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10.44Northeastern University0.550.0%1st Place
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7.62Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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11.33Maine Maritime Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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8.43University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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14.17Wesleyan University-1.490.0%1st Place
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11.77Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Storck | 21.0% | 21.0% | 15.6% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Weigel | 34.9% | 22.4% | 18.3% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Moakes | 10.4% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Swanson | 8.5% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Alexandra Swanson | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jared Dunn | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Pierce Conlin | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 15.5% | 10.2% | 2.7% |
| Thomas Presti | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Olin Nelson | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 15.0% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 4.0% |
| Andrew Morgan | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Steven Bell | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 19.3% | 20.8% | 7.2% |
| William Dykes | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Katherine Walker | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 11.4% | 72.7% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 15.8% | 28.7% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.