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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University1.51+6.62vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.67+0.56vs Predicted
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3University of Connecticut1.72+4.02vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.18-0.51vs Predicted
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5Brandeis University1.25+3.57vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.47-0.87vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.59-2.20vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire1.35+0.22vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58-1.46vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University0.72+0.07vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.76-3.86vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.55-1.35vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.29-1.73vs Predicted
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14Wesleyan University-1.49+0.17vs Predicted
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16Williams College-0.03-4.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.62Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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2.56Tufts University3.670.3%1st Place
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7.02University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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3.49Dartmouth College3.180.2%1st Place
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8.57Brandeis University1.250.0%1st Place
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5.13Roger Williams University2.470.1%1st Place
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4.8University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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8.22University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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7.54Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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10.07Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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7.14Brown University1.760.0%1st Place
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10.65Northeastern University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.27Maine Maritime Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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14.17Wesleyan University-1.490.0%1st Place
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11.76Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genevieve Marquardt | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Ben Weigel | 34.0% | 25.0% | 16.4% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ian Storck | 19.7% | 20.1% | 16.5% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jared Dunn | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 0.4% |
| Sara Swanson | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Moakes | 11.5% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Dykes | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Morgan | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Pierce Conlin | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.8% | 10.2% | 3.4% |
| Alexandra Swanson | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Olin Nelson | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 17.2% | 14.9% | 3.6% |
| Steven Bell | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 20.4% | 7.8% |
| Katherine Walker | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 11.4% | 72.1% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 29.1% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.