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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Miami1.93+7.02vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.13+6.86vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.16+2.26vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.05+1.21vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.14+3.95vs Predicted
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6Hampton University0.58+2.42vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.54+1.23vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University0.87+1.65vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.70-1.87vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.30-3.07vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.22-2.47vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.85-1.97vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.36-1.24vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.59vs Predicted
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15Boston University0.40-3.41vs Predicted
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16George Washington University0.70-5.37vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University0.69-6.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.02University of Miami1.936.3%1st Place
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8.86St. Mary's College of Maryland1.134.7%1st Place
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5.26U. S. Naval Academy2.1612.8%1st Place
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5.21Tulane University2.0513.9%1st Place
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8.95Cornell University1.144.9%1st Place
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8.42Hampton University0.586.0%1st Place
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8.23Fordham University1.547.4%1st Place
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9.65North Carolina State University0.874.2%1st Place
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7.13Jacksonville University1.708.2%1st Place
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6.93Webb Institute1.308.3%1st Place
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8.53Old Dominion University1.225.7%1st Place
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10.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.853.9%1st Place
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11.76University of Vermont0.362.4%1st Place
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13.41Christopher Newport University-0.841.5%1st Place
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11.59Boston University0.402.7%1st Place
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10.63George Washington University0.702.9%1st Place
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10.4Northeastern University0.694.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Dennis | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Raam Fox | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 12.8% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John Wood | 13.9% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.2% |
| Tyler Brown | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Brelage | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| Patrick Igoe | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Jack Guinness | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% |
| Marco Welch | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 15.2% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 32.5% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 14.3% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% |
| Gavin Hudson | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.