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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.85+7.28vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+4.92vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+6.99vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+7.38vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.73+2.28vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.46+2.91vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.75+1.51vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.14vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.95+2.73vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.45-0.59vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.79+0.13vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-2.53vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.90-4.90vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.95-1.97vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-4.75vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.12-5.10vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.78-5.20vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.20-7.92vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.14-4.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.28Brown University2.857.1%1st Place
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6.92Harvard University3.059.3%1st Place
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9.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.1%1st Place
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11.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.0%1st Place
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7.28Yale University2.738.8%1st Place
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8.91Tulane University2.465.9%1st Place
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8.51Georgetown University2.757.3%1st Place
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9.14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.8%1st Place
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11.73U. S. Naval Academy1.953.1%1st Place
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9.41Roger Williams University2.455.8%1st Place
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11.13Boston University1.794.0%1st Place
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9.47Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.4%1st Place
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8.1Dartmouth College2.907.0%1st Place
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12.03Connecticut College1.952.9%1st Place
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10.25University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.5%1st Place
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10.9Tufts University2.124.2%1st Place
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11.8North Carolina State University1.783.5%1st Place
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10.08Boston College2.204.8%1st Place
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14.69University of Wisconsin1.141.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| Will Murray | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% |
| Jack Egan | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 7.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Walter Henry | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% |
| Adam Larson | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 7.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 33.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.