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📊 Prediction Accuracy
10.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.85+7.18vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+6.05vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.73+4.47vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.95+7.49vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.05+2.01vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+3.99vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.45+2.47vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.12+3.08vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+1.06vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.94vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.75-2.24vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-2.65vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.20-3.00vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.79-3.05vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.78-3.22vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.46-6.97vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.95-4.89vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-6.55vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.14-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.18Brown University2.857.3%1st Place
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8.05Dartmouth College2.908.0%1st Place
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7.47Yale University2.738.1%1st Place
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11.49U. S. Naval Academy1.954.7%1st Place
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7.01Harvard University3.059.7%1st Place
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9.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.7%1st Place
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9.47Roger Williams University2.454.2%1st Place
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11.08Tufts University2.123.8%1st Place
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10.06University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.8%1st Place
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9.06St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.0%1st Place
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8.76Georgetown University2.756.6%1st Place
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9.35Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.8%1st Place
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10.0Boston College2.205.0%1st Place
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10.95Boston University1.794.3%1st Place
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11.78North Carolina State University1.783.1%1st Place
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9.03Tulane University2.466.3%1st Place
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12.11Connecticut College1.953.0%1st Place
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11.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.2%1st Place
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14.71University of Wisconsin1.141.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Jack Egan | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Trenton Shaw | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
| Adam Larson | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| Walter Henry | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% |
| Will Murray | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 31.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.