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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.85+7.43vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.46+6.88vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.12+8.03vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+5.97vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.05+1.93vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.90+2.27vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.25vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.01vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.75-0.39vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.95+2.25vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.36vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.45-2.66vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.73-5.74vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.78-2.18vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.20-5.02vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.79-5.08vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.14-2.30vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-7.86vs Predicted
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19U. S. Naval Academy1.95-7.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.43Brown University2.857.3%1st Place
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8.88Tulane University2.466.5%1st Place
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11.03Tufts University2.123.6%1st Place
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9.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.5%1st Place
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6.93Harvard University3.059.4%1st Place
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8.27Dartmouth College2.907.0%1st Place
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11.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.0%1st Place
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9.01St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.4%1st Place
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8.61Georgetown University2.755.9%1st Place
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12.25Connecticut College1.952.7%1st Place
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9.64Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.8%1st Place
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9.34Roger Williams University2.455.8%1st Place
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7.26Yale University2.739.8%1st Place
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11.82North Carolina State University1.783.2%1st Place
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9.98Boston College2.204.4%1st Place
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10.92Boston University1.794.0%1st Place
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14.7University of Wisconsin1.142.2%1st Place
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10.14University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.4%1st Place
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11.55U. S. Naval Academy1.953.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Will Murray | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| Walter Henry | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Jack Egan | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 33.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.