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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+9.14vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+4.98vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.85+5.31vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.12+7.01vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.73+2.30vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.49vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.95+5.04vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.78+3.59vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.08vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-0.81vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-0.86vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.90-3.69vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.95-1.09vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.20-3.88vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.75-6.45vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.46-7.12vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.45-7.68vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.14-3.16vs Predicted
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19Boston University1.79-8.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.9%1st Place
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6.98Harvard University3.058.6%1st Place
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8.31Brown University2.856.2%1st Place
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11.01Tufts University2.124.7%1st Place
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7.3Yale University2.738.3%1st Place
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11.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.8%1st Place
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12.04U. S. Naval Academy1.953.0%1st Place
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11.59North Carolina State University1.783.2%1st Place
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9.08St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.3%1st Place
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9.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.7%1st Place
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10.14University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.8%1st Place
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8.31Dartmouth College2.906.8%1st Place
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11.91Connecticut College1.953.1%1st Place
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10.12Boston College2.204.5%1st Place
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8.55Georgetown University2.757.8%1st Place
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8.88Tulane University2.466.3%1st Place
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9.32Roger Williams University2.455.9%1st Place
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14.84University of Wisconsin1.141.5%1st Place
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10.79Boston University1.793.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% |
| Jack Egan | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 8.2% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Walter Henry | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 33.1% |
| Tyler Mowry | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.