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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+8.90vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.45+7.18vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+6.03vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.12+7.10vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.85+3.18vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.46+3.12vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.75+1.49vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.79+2.97vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.90-1.07vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.64vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-3.80vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.95-0.24vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.78-1.23vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.73-6.64vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-5.73vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.95-3.92vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-6.71vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.20-7.95vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.14-4.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.4%1st Place
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9.18Roger Williams University2.455.5%1st Place
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9.03St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.3%1st Place
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11.1Tufts University2.123.2%1st Place
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8.18Brown University2.857.2%1st Place
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9.12Tulane University2.465.8%1st Place
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8.49Georgetown University2.757.1%1st Place
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10.97Boston University1.794.0%1st Place
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7.93Dartmouth College2.907.8%1st Place
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11.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.162.9%1st Place
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7.2Harvard University3.0510.2%1st Place
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11.76U. S. Naval Academy1.953.6%1st Place
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11.77North Carolina State University1.782.9%1st Place
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7.36Yale University2.739.5%1st Place
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9.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.8%1st Place
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12.08Connecticut College1.953.3%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.5%1st Place
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10.05Boston College2.205.5%1st Place
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14.68University of Wisconsin1.141.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| Adam Larson | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% |
| Jack Egan | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Walter Henry | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 31.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.