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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+8.83vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.85+6.16vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.73+4.23vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+5.71vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.05+1.87vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.45+3.03vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.46+1.84vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.90-0.34vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.20+0.66vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.31vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.77vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.95-0.78vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.78-1.39vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.79-3.06vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.75-6.41vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.12-5.21vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-5.94vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.38-1.55vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.14-4.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.83U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.5%1st Place
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8.16Brown University2.857.1%1st Place
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7.23Yale University2.739.6%1st Place
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9.71University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.7%1st Place
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6.87Harvard University3.059.5%1st Place
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9.03Roger Williams University2.456.5%1st Place
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8.84Tulane University2.466.0%1st Place
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7.66Dartmouth College2.907.8%1st Place
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9.66Boston College2.205.7%1st Place
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8.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.0%1st Place
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9.23Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.0%1st Place
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11.22U. S. Naval Academy1.953.8%1st Place
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11.61North Carolina State University1.783.0%1st Place
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10.94Boston University1.792.9%1st Place
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8.59Georgetown University2.755.3%1st Place
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10.79Tufts University2.123.9%1st Place
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11.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.7%1st Place
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16.45Connecticut College0.380.8%1st Place
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14.44University of Wisconsin1.141.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Jack Egan | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| Adam Larson | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 4.8% |
| Tyler Mowry | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% |
| Will Murray | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% |
| Liam Gronda | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 51.8% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 19.1% | 20.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.