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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+8.69vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.85+5.97vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+5.34vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05+2.97vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.96vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.46+2.83vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.73+0.12vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.20+1.67vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.19vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.95+1.42vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.45-2.01vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.14+2.55vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.12-2.16vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.90-6.20vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.79-4.04vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.78-4.46vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-7.14vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.38-1.48vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-9.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.9%1st Place
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7.97Brown University2.857.9%1st Place
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8.34Georgetown University2.758.0%1st Place
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6.97Harvard University3.0510.2%1st Place
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10.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.8%1st Place
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8.83Tulane University2.465.8%1st Place
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7.12Yale University2.738.6%1st Place
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9.67Boston College2.204.9%1st Place
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8.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.9%1st Place
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11.42U. S. Naval Academy1.954.1%1st Place
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8.99Roger Williams University2.456.0%1st Place
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14.55University of Wisconsin1.141.4%1st Place
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10.84Tufts University2.123.6%1st Place
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7.8Dartmouth College2.907.6%1st Place
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10.96Boston University1.792.8%1st Place
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11.54North Carolina State University1.782.5%1st Place
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9.86University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.8%1st Place
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16.52Connecticut College0.380.6%1st Place
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9.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Jack Egan | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Trenton Shaw | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 3.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 20.8% | 19.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 3.2% |
| Adam Larson | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Liam Gronda | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 52.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.