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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.20+9.21vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+6.18vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.85+5.29vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+6.09vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.95+6.67vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.45+3.33vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.73+0.44vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.95+3.92vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.27vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.46-1.03vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.54vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.78-0.46vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.68vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.12-2.80vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.75-6.52vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.05-9.07vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-6.93vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.79-7.05vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.14-4.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.21Boston College2.205.2%1st Place
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8.18Dartmouth College2.906.7%1st Place
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8.29Brown University2.857.1%1st Place
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10.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.1%1st Place
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11.67U. S. Naval Academy1.953.6%1st Place
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9.33Roger Williams University2.455.0%1st Place
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7.44Yale University2.738.8%1st Place
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11.92Connecticut College1.953.3%1st Place
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9.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.9%1st Place
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8.97Tulane University2.465.6%1st Place
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11.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.162.9%1st Place
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11.54North Carolina State University1.783.6%1st Place
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9.32St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.4%1st Place
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11.2Tufts University2.123.3%1st Place
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8.48Georgetown University2.757.1%1st Place
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6.93Harvard University3.059.4%1st Place
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10.07University of California at Santa Barbara2.045.6%1st Place
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10.95Boston University1.795.0%1st Place
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14.62University of Wisconsin1.141.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kirkman | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% |
| Robert Bragg | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| Jack Egan | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Walter Henry | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Will Murray | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% |
| Adam Larson | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 33.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.