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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.05+5.25vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.46+6.35vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+7.47vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+3.82vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.24vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.12+4.46vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.95+3.63vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.85-0.60vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-0.31vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-0.86vs Predicted
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112.73-4.32vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.94-1.35vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.20-3.59vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.79-3.66vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-5.80vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.78-5.33vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.14-3.25vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.45-5.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.25Harvard University3.0510.7%1st Place
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8.35Tulane University2.466.0%1st Place
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10.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.5%1st Place
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7.82Georgetown University2.758.2%1st Place
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8.24St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.7%1st Place
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10.46Tufts University2.124.0%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Naval Academy1.954.1%1st Place
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7.4Brown University2.858.8%1st Place
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8.69Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.7%1st Place
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9.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.0%1st Place
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6.682.7310.5%1st Place
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10.65Roger Williams University1.943.7%1st Place
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9.41Boston College2.205.2%1st Place
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10.34Boston University1.794.8%1st Place
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9.2University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.8%1st Place
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10.67North Carolina State University1.784.3%1st Place
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13.75University of Wisconsin1.141.8%1st Place
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12.86Connecticut College1.452.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.7% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Will Murray | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% |
| Trenton Shaw | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Jack Egan | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Mathieu Dale | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% |
| Adam Larson | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 30.2% |
| Harris Padegs | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 19.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.