← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tulane University2.46+7.34vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University2.12+8.42vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+6.40vs Predicted
-
4Connecticut College1.95+7.40vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.61vs Predicted
-
6Harvard University3.05+0.48vs Predicted
-
7Boston University1.79+3.12vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy1.95+2.96vs Predicted
-
92.73-2.11vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University1.94+0.76vs Predicted
-
11Georgetown University2.75-3.08vs Predicted
-
12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.16vs Predicted
-
13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-4.25vs Predicted
-
14Brown University2.85-6.42vs Predicted
-
15North Carolina State University1.78-3.93vs Predicted
-
16Boston College2.58-7.87vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-7.62vs Predicted
-
18University of Wisconsin1.14-4.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.34Tulane University2.466.2%1st Place
-
10.42Tufts University2.124.5%1st Place
-
9.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.7%1st Place
-
11.4Connecticut College1.952.4%1st Place
-
8.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.6%1st Place
-
6.48Harvard University3.0510.8%1st Place
-
10.12Boston University1.794.2%1st Place
-
10.96U. S. Naval Academy1.953.8%1st Place
-
6.892.739.7%1st Place
-
10.76Roger Williams University1.943.8%1st Place
-
7.92Georgetown University2.757.5%1st Place
-
10.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.9%1st Place
-
8.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.6%1st Place
-
7.58Brown University2.857.9%1st Place
-
11.07North Carolina State University1.783.4%1st Place
-
8.13Boston College2.586.6%1st Place
-
9.38University of California at Santa Barbara2.046.2%1st Place
-
13.96University of Wisconsin1.141.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Giblin | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% |
| Walter Henry | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% |
| Jack Egan | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Mathieu Dale | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Will Murray | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Adam Larson | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% |
| Peter Busch | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 14.3% | 32.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.