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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+6.45vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+3.90vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+7.80vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.41+4.16vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.09+4.41vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.85+0.41vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.12+4.26vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.29+1.32vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+1.43vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-1.69vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.38-2.79vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.22-3.21vs Predicted
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13Tulane University1.77-2.53vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-2.80vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.02-5.80vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-4.38vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.65-5.71vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.17-1.68vs Predicted
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19North Carolina State University0.77-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.45U. S. Naval Academy2.608.3%1st Place
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5.9Brown University2.9111.5%1st Place
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10.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.6%1st Place
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8.16Georgetown University2.417.6%1st Place
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9.41Roger Williams University2.096.2%1st Place
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6.41Yale University2.8510.2%1st Place
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11.26Harvard University2.123.9%1st Place
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9.32Connecticut College2.295.5%1st Place
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10.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.2%1st Place
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8.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.4%1st Place
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8.21Dartmouth College2.386.0%1st Place
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8.79Tufts University2.225.0%1st Place
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10.47Tulane University1.774.4%1st Place
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11.2University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.6%1st Place
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9.2Boston College2.025.2%1st Place
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11.62St. Mary's College of Maryland1.623.2%1st Place
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11.29Boston University1.653.3%1st Place
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16.32University of Wisconsin0.170.5%1st Place
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15.46North Carolina State University0.771.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Scott Mais | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 3.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Maks Groom | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| William Michels | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Asher Zittrer | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Micky Munns | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.1% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 17.4% | 44.6% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 21.6% | 30.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.