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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+6.25vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.02+7.55vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+8.29vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.91+2.00vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.22+4.03vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+2.27vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.85-0.45vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.29+1.62vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.87vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.09-0.62vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.41-2.82vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.65-0.65vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.12-1.91vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.38-5.79vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-4.45vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.09-6.51vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.17-0.66vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-6.55vs Predicted
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19North Carolina State University0.77-3.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.25U. S. Naval Academy2.609.0%1st Place
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9.55Boston College2.024.7%1st Place
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11.29University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.6%1st Place
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6.0Brown University2.9111.5%1st Place
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9.03Tufts University2.225.2%1st Place
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8.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.0%1st Place
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6.55Yale University2.858.8%1st Place
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9.62Connecticut College2.295.1%1st Place
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10.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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9.38Roger Williams University2.095.5%1st Place
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8.18Georgetown University2.417.0%1st Place
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11.35Boston University1.653.9%1st Place
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11.09Harvard University2.123.9%1st Place
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8.21Dartmouth College2.385.7%1st Place
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10.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.3%1st Place
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9.49Tulane University2.095.2%1st Place
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16.34University of Wisconsin0.170.8%1st Place
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11.45St. Mary's College of Maryland1.623.5%1st Place
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15.53North Carolina State University0.770.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 3.9% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 11.5% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Scott Mais | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Micky Munns | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| William Michels | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Maks Groom | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.0% |
| Peter Foley III | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 18.2% | 45.5% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 3.1% |
| Harrison Bailey | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 20.6% | 30.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.